God, I hate how this memo deadline means I don't have a chance to blog properly, and end up doing 'me too' posts.

Look here for Professor Volokh on the downside risk to the gay marriage movement of using the courts to determine what 'marriage' has to mean.

I've had a number of bets running with people over when gay marriage will become legal in the US in all 50 states. (For reasons I'll go into after the memo's done, I'm pretty certain it's inevitable.) I'd say within three years, have put money on six years, and the best bet I have outstanding is 12 years. But my reckoning counted on one thing: the Federal Marriage Amendment going to the states before the Supreme Court instituted gay marriage.

I think that, absent a judicial ruling to oppose it, the FMA would fail: the constitutional hurdles are too high, and passing an amendment is too much work. But if those pushing for the FMA can do so under a feeling of crisis--pass this amendment now, or the choice is taken away from you forever by nine guys in black robes--it's got a pretty decent shot. Once passed, it forecloses the judicial option.

On the other hand, if the court cases came after the FMA failed, and the Supremes waited a year before institutionalizing what, by that point, was inevitable... well, that was why I personally believed 2006 was a good target date.

I could be wrong, but I don't think so. At the very least, I'd no longer bet on 2006 for institutionalization of gay marriage nationwide, but 2009... I'd guess it at even money right now.

OK, I'll put that more coherently once this memo is finished.