Am I Missing Something?
I'm not a Democrat, so I've not delved into the details of how they pick the head donkey. But why would someone as smart as Prof. Yin start dancing on Dean's grave? Why is it that when I watched Nightline last night, they've written off Dean because he's not won a state yet?
The Democratic primaries aren't 'winner-takes-all." They're proportional. And each state has a number of unpledged 'superdelegates.' I'm unclear what happens to a delegate when his candidate drops out of the race, but those very well may come back into play as well.
The upshot of this is that Dean is in second place, and Edwards is decidedly third. Furthermore, so long as Dean is the second choice in states that break for Edwards, that won't help Edwards so much. Given the unpredictable superdelegates and the proportional representation system, why is this not a Kerry/Dean race? Near as I can tell, you can win the Democratic nomination without ever winning a single state.
True, Kerry's got a big lead, and his momentum may mean it's in the bag already. But to the extent that there is a race, I'd think it Dean was the man still running. What accounts for the pessimism of the pundits?