Poll Watching, Stock Watching
Both Lawrence Lessig and Heidi Bond seem to think that Sinclair Broadcast Group, Inc. (NASDAQ=SBGI) are going to take a hammering due to consumer boycotts. These boycotts arising, of course, because Sinclair has decided to air a special on Kerry's involvement in Vietnam before the election.
I'm skeptical. Lessig notes that SBGI is down 10% since the announcement. This is true enough, but it's also down 50% in the last six months, and the announcement came shortly after an earnings warning. Short-term "shares fell because" analyses are fun games, but I don't give them much credence. Even Lessig notes that, "This drop is no doubt in part a calculation about how Sinclair will fair if the election goes for Kerry." It'll be interesting to watch Sinclair to see how its shares do in relation to the polls: if Kerry tanks, Sinclair may pick back up a few points.
I'm sure I ought to care one way or the other about this: either Sinclair is wickedly using its rights to the broadcast spectrum to manipulate election, and Bush's cronies at the FEC are letting him (Democratic version), or this is all a bundle of hypocrisy being griped at by folks who have no real problem with Farenheit 911 or rankly partisan newscasting using falsified documents (Republican version). [1]
Fortunately, my television reception is lousy, and trying to watch FOX involves fifteen minutes of jiggling antenae. Frankly, I can't imagine a bigger waste of my time than watching this thing, one way or the other. I somehow doubt an anti-Kerry show is going to get huge market share: imagine an hour-long SwiftBoats ad. Nor do I think the boycott's going to make a huge difference. Tempests and teacups...
[1] And before anyone starts pointing out that SBGI is purposefully broadcasting a show and CBS's memorandums thing was a "mistake," just forget it. Those were forgeries that should have been seen through in under a minute by anyone who wanted to look. Sure, you could probably only prove negligence or recklessness in court, but I'm happy to call the "error" intentional. It was dumb enough.
Comments
Posted by: Martin | October 18, 2004 3:15 AM
Posted by: Jonathan Link | October 18, 2004 8:58 AM
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Posted by: A. Rickey | October 18, 2004 1:47 PM
Posted by: Len Cleavelin | October 18, 2004 2:33 PM
Posted by: A. Rickey | October 18, 2004 2:37 PM
Posted by: Mike Russo | October 18, 2004 2:59 PM
Posted by: A. Rickey | October 18, 2004 3:21 PM
Posted by: Queenslaw | October 18, 2004 10:13 PM