The Red Cross, AIDS, and LSAT Practice
I've been having a bit of an argument about statistics with guest blogger Beth Plocharczyk over at Crescat Sententia. The argument reminds me of one of those fancy reasoning questions on the LSAT, so I'll go into it here.
She's arguing that because it's easy to test for HIV-infected blood six-months post-infection, only the number of new HIV infections matters. She then states:
"According to the CDC, a full 33% of new HIV infections are in men and women engaging in heterosexual intercourse. (42% are from men sleeping with men, 10% from IV drug users). 54% of new HIV infections in the U.S. are in African-Americans. I don't see them stricken from the bone marrow donation eligibility list."
As you can see, her argument is that it is irrational for the Red Cross to pre-screen applicants by asking if they have had male homosexual contact, and to allow heterosexuals to donate blood or bone marrow while rejecting male homosexuals. (Or indeed, while allowing African Americans to donate.)
This may be so on other grounds--it's a policy debate I don't want to touch, frankly--but you cannot reach that conclusion based upon the statistics above. Indeed, doing so would be fundamentally 'irrational.'
I'll explain why tomorrow in the unlikely event that no one gets it, but in the meantime any of you studying for the LSAT are welcome to take a crack at it in the comments section.
Comments
Posted by: Bateleur | November 22, 2003 5:22 AM
Posted by: A. Rickey | November 22, 2003 11:23 AM
Posted by: Josh | November 22, 2003 4:45 PM
Posted by: lawyer | November 23, 2003 7:28 AM
Posted by: Bill S. | November 23, 2003 10:52 AM