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Slaughter, I'm Calling You Out

I love the Columbia Political Review. When it takes itself seriously, it's almost as good as The Onion:

Labour is getting decimated in the local elections, currently running third behind both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems. Although all results won't be available until the weekend, I can no longer see a scenario that lets Blair stay in office even to the end of the month. This election makes it crystal clear that the British public is deserting Labour in droves, and unless they want to go the way of the Liberals, supporting a Prime Minister as a party to their left steals their base, they need to act and act fast.

PM Gordon Brown by July 1. Tony goes on to be a member of the Lords and becomes as politically powerful as his predecessor John Major.

So a quick hop over to the BBC, for a dose of reality:

This would give the Tories a result on a par with its local election results achieved under William Hague's leadership in 2000.

But the Tories point out that it looks like being their biggest lead over Labour since John Major won the 1992 election.

Their biggest lead over Labour since 1992 is satisfied by almost any gain whatsoever. Anyone who thinks that a result 'on par with its local election results achieved under William Hague' is going to force a change in power, or that Blair is in the kind of danger Thatcher was--what would be necessary for a three-week shift to Gordon Brown--is living in a fantasy land. Or, I suppose, works as editor for Columbia's 'political review.'

Slaughter, if you're proven right, I'll buy you a round of your choice when I get back to NYC. Somehow, I'm not too concerned.

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as a party to their left steals their base That line gave me a good laugh. I wish ! The thing you have to remember about local elections is that people pick their votes for a bizarre variety of reasons. But once a general election turns up their voting patterns change completely because they know they're voting in a Prime Minister. Labour have the next general very much in the bag. The only real question with these local elections is whether Red Ken has made it back in as Mayor. At time of writing, we don't yet know.
Ah, Bateleur, you seem to 'labour' under the mistaken impression that the editor of the 'official blog of the Columbia Political Review' must have some idea--say, the difference between local and national elections in the UK?--about what he's talking about...
Blair is going to stay in the short term, for a start it's almost impossible to get rid of him till the party convention. At that point he may go if things haven't improved. Won't matter though, thanks to the appaling gerrymandering that is the first past the post / constituency system the Tories need a 20 point swing or something to take the country back. It's not going to happen. Of course I would like to see Blair go, either for Gordon Brown or Robin Cook, the one man with the guts to resign and say the intelligence about the Iraq war was a crock of shit (and he was a former foreign secretary)
Martin: They may need a 20 point swing nationwide, but as you point out, that isn't how our electoral system works. The Tories are quite able to get in without such a major swing. You can call it gerrymandering if you like, but ultimately it could just as easily hurt Labour as any other party.

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