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Why I Have A Hard Time Respecting Amnesty International

Prof. Yin highlights one of those wonderful articles by concerned liberals (in this case Anna Quindlen) that causes a moment of pause. I have to remind myself that there are quite sensible people who object to the death penalty, and they don't all offer drivel as arguments. It's worth listening to them.

I find this tough to remember because death penalty abolitionists have some pretty staunch spinmeisters in their corner. Justice Scalia's concurrence in Marsh today challenged some of the key figures one hears, but for my money Amnesty International takes the Arachne Award for the Service of Spun Statistics to Public Policy. For instance, it's hard to find a death penalty press release that doesn't contain some variation of the statement, "In 2005, 94 per cent of all known executions took place in China, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the USA."

That sounds pretty damning, doesn't it? But what if I told you that (based on the same statistics), the U.S. came in fourth place and counted for only 2.8% of all executions in 2005? That's a bit less impressive. On a per capita basis, Singapore's hangmen are busier by almost a factor of ten? (OK, the figures are old, but it's still a high multiple.) The big deal, of course, is China, which accounts for over 80% of all executions worldwide.

Amensty choses the "top four" cut off, of course, not because the U.S. is exceptional among countries retaining the death penalty (that would be China), but because the United States is fourth. Amnesty often precedes the line I quoted above with, "As in previous years, the vast majority of executions worldwide were carried out in a tiny handful of countries." True so far as it goes. But the vast majority of executions are carried out by a single country, and the rest are just frosting on that particular cake.

This spin also allows people like Quinlen to blithely write:

Hardly any other civilized place does this anymore. In the past three decades, the number of nations that have abolished the death penalty has risen from 16 to 86. Last year four countries accounted for nearly all executions worldwide: China, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United States.

Quindlen's list of "civilized places" excludes such nations as India, Japan, South Korea. Last I checked, I considered those civilized countries. In international culture sumo, Japan's certainly in the same weight class. I suppose Quindlen might consider Korea uncivilized, but any definition of "hardly any" that includes India needs mathematical help.

Despite being flat-out deceptive, Amnesty is happy to push these little statistics, and commentators like Quindlen trot them out like respectable toy poodles. The trouble is that once one learns how the numbers have been massaged, it's hard not to judge the rest of the abolitionist claims with some skepticism. Hundreds of exonerations? Well, were these innocent people or are we trying for large headline numbers by including procedural faults?

I'm sure Amnesty's heart is in the right place, which is normally the excuse one hears for them. But it's hard to think that when the "best of intentions" are promoted by rather shady means.

Comments

Your 80% figure suggests that China is the big baddy here. But China's population is ~1.3bn, while Iran's is ~76m, Saudi Arabia's is ~26.4m and the USA's is ~300m. That means that if Iran were the same size as China we would expect it to execute nearly the same number of people (1607 people); for Saudi this would be nearly twice as many (4234 people!). The corresponding figure for the USA meanwhile is 250 people, which is about a 7th of the number China are estimated to execute (1660 according to AI). But then we might consider who is the most susceptible to moderating influence. I don't know the answer, but one might conjecture that of the four, USA is the one most worth lobbying, on the grounds that it has no death penalty in at least some of its states. There again, any moderating influence on China would count for more on grounds of sheer size. Practical considerations aside, the fact that USA is ranked fourth is indeed disturbing, when one considers the way it is often held up as an example to the world. But in reference to your original point, lets be honest: pretty much any political organisation that uses statistics uses them to misrepresent the truth. They don't do it all the time or with all their statistics, but everyone is guilty. If you use statistical shadiness (or, more generously, statistical incompetence) as a measure of trust then you quickly find yourself distrusting everyone. By pointing out AI's inadequacies, you cast aspersions against them that could legitimately be cast against almost any organisation of its type.
Glad I checked back in, it has been interesting to follow your progress. On your notice to Spammers, etc., have you thought of including an arbitration agreement, stipulated methods of service for arbitration, assignment of power of attorney and an agreement to transfer domain name? It would really slow spammers down if spam was followed by arbitration and execution on assets so you could use spam to take domain names away from spammers. That would actually allow a real cost. Backed up by the current state of arbitration law it actually offers some real threats.
Stephen M: No, I hadn't thought about it, but that's a pretty cool idea.

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